Electric Bikes

On Mon, 31 May 2021 17:04:39 -0700 (PDT), jbeattie
wrote:

The ebike is not going the way of the Hula Hoop, Silly Putty, Slinkies or YoYos

E-bike makers will be sad to hear that. All those toys are available
at big-box stores.

--
Joy Beeson
joy beeson at centurylink dot net

On Monday, May 31, 2021 at 7:51:59 PM UTC-7, Joy Beeson wrote:
On Mon, 31 May 2021 17:04:39 -0700 (PDT), jbeattie
wrote:

The ebike is not going the way of the Hula Hoop, Silly Putty, Slinkies or YoYos
E-bike makers will be sad to hear that. All those toys are available
at big-box stores.

My point is that ebikes will not sky rocket and crash, which was my sense of those toys -- although I haven't looked at sales numbers. Are YoYos still big?

-- Jay Beattie.

On 6/1/2021 10:36 AM, jbeattie wrote:
On Monday, May 31, 2021 at 7:51:59 PM UTC-7, Joy Beeson wrote:
On Mon, 31 May 2021 17:04:39 -0700 (PDT), jbeattie
wrote:

The ebike is not going the way of the Hula Hoop, Silly Putty, Slinkies or YoYos
E-bike makers will be sad to hear that. All those toys are available
at big-box stores.

My point is that ebikes will not sky rocket and crash, which was my sense of those toys -- although I haven't looked at sales numbers. Are YoYos still big?

I'll bet that ebikes will be a permanent part of the landscape. For one
thing, at least in my area, baby boomers are still a significant
proportion of the avid cyclists. As they age, many will buy ebikes to
keep riding. Then there's the natural laziness of most people.

At the same time, I envision an ever-growing stream of ebikes heading
into landfills. Unlike regular* bikes, I expect it's going to be much
more difficult to keep an ebike running. As Tom said, the batteries will
have limited life and are proprietary. The electronics are proprietary.
The electronic components for repair will soon become unavailable.

I imagine people like Jeff will get pleasure out of restoring old ones,
but people like Jeff are in very short supply.

=================

(* We'll soon need a retronym for a regular bicycle. Once there were
only "guitars." Then they got electrified, and what was just a "guitar"
had to be called an "acoustic guitar.")

(Which kinda reminds me of this song:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=O5TFTbT5eEM )


--
- Frank Krygowski

On Tuesday, June 1, 2021 at 4:36:04 PM UTC+2, jbeattie wrote:
On Monday, May 31, 2021 at 7:51:59 PM UTC-7, Joy Beeson wrote:
On Mon, 31 May 2021 17:04:39 -0700 (PDT), jbeattie
wrote:

The ebike is not going the way of the Hula Hoop, Silly Putty, Slinkies or YoYos
E-bike makers will be sad to hear that. All those toys are available
at big-box stores.
My point is that ebikes will not sky rocket and crash, which was my sense of those toys -- although I haven't looked at sales numbers. Are YoYos still big?

-- Jay Beattie.


Come and look here. No they don't gonna crash. It is the new normal here.

Lou

On 2021-06-01, Lou Holtman wrote:
On Tuesday, June 1, 2021 at 4:36:04 PM UTC+2, jbeattie wrote:
On Monday, May 31, 2021 at 7:51:59 PM UTC-7, Joy Beeson wrote:
On Mon, 31 May 2021 17:04:39 -0700 (PDT), jbeattie
wrote:

The ebike is not going the way of the Hula Hoop, Silly Putty, Slinkies or YoYos
E-bike makers will be sad to hear that. All those toys are available
at big-box stores.
My point is that ebikes will not sky rocket and crash, which was my sense of those toys -- although I haven't looked at sales numbers. Are YoYos still big?

-- Jay Beattie.


Come and look here. No they don't gonna crash. It is the new normal here.

Lou

Yes, becoming very popular here in Santa Cruz, as well.

The effect I felt when I installed my (now-defunct) Elation 250W mid-drive
kit is that I was working just as hard (or not) as usual but that it just
gave me two extra gears. eg: 3rd gear instead of 1st on a known climb, 7th
gear instead of 5th on flat, etc.

The game changer, of course, is the Li ion technology since if was so easy
for uninformed users to kill off their lead acid battery pack.

NiMH would be more robust, but that chemistry never seemed to catch on
before Lithium came on the scene.

I wonder what the next-great-thing (tm) will be....I hear some rumblings
about one based on Aluminum.

I normally ride unassisted bikes, though. The kit bike is at my mom's for
use when I'm there.

pH in Aptos

On 5/31/21 4:10 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Monday, May 31, 2021 at 4:04:44 PM UTC-7, jbeattie wrote:
On Monday, May 31, 2021 at 3:42:28 PM UTC-7, wrote:
On Monday, May 31, 2021 at 1:19:38 PM UTC-7, AMuzi wrote:
On 5/31/2021 12:20 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On my 35 mile ride that was mostly through the Livermore Valley, I saw two electric bikes. I'm not exactly sure why someone would buy an electric bike for exercise unless they were attempting to keep up with a group and they were beginners but there you are,

I easily rode past them because both obviously had their power limiters as sold. It isn't as if I was trying to pass them because in both cases I eased up and intended to pass them at a red light so that it didn't look like I was trying to make them feel bad, but in one case he turned off as I was fairly close and the other case I was nearly coasting down a hill and those bikes are limited more or less to 15 mph as far as I can tell. Into a fairly strong headwind I was still doing 19 mph and simply wasn't going to slow down that much.

I can see reasons for an electric bike if you are commuting on them or, in the special case of a beginner trying to keep up with a slow group. But unless the power limiter is taken off they really are pretty slow and if you do take them off the battery has a pretty limited range.

One of them was supposed to look like a racing bike with an invisible battery but you can tell because of the size of the downtube. The other made no pretenses and was a rather clunky flat bar bike that the rider may have been using for transportation and had gone over the hill via Dublin Grade and was returning the same way. He also was not dressed in cycling clothing so that could not have extended his range.

I wonder how long these things will last on the market since a touring bike is probably every bit the commuter as they are.

One might just shoot them before they shoot you:

https://nypost.com/2021/05/30/man-ki...n-nyc-sources/

Or not. Your choice.
It is my opinion that e-bikes are going to be a short lived fad. Not because you might be able to make a practical e-bike but because they add NOTHNG to your riding pleasure and I am riding 25 mile weekly rides with an 88 year old. And another 88 year old that used to ride with us became useless when he quit riding to please the fears of his wife. Now he can hardly remember his name. Older people simply don't have the heart strength to climb much but then again a 68 year old group member, just did a ride from Castrol Valley to Yosemite via Sacramento (way out of the way) and took the train back. And he has a pacemaker on and has to take blood thinners.
Hmmm. Ebikes generate the vast majority of Specialized's revenue. The industry does not see them as a passing fad.

-- Jay Beattie.
Remember that everything looks good until the batteries have to be replaced.


As long as manufacturers charge fat margins on top of new batteries we
will see the same as with other expensive battery-powered devices such
as laptops: A proliferation of re-celling businesses.

https://batteryworldshop.com/pages/e...ttery-rebuilds

When looking at the cost, even if a $700 battery lasts five years and
the user pays full boat instead of heading to a re-celler most people
would consider $140/year a reasonable expense for a commuter bike. The
average car costs more than that just in taxes, at least in the People's
Republic of California.

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

On 6/1/21 11:18 AM, pH wrote:
On 2021-06-01, Lou Holtman wrote:
On Tuesday, June 1, 2021 at 4:36:04 PM UTC+2, jbeattie wrote:
On Monday, May 31, 2021 at 7:51:59 PM UTC-7, Joy Beeson wrote:
On Mon, 31 May 2021 17:04:39 -0700 (PDT), jbeattie
wrote:

The ebike is not going the way of the Hula Hoop, Silly Putty, Slinkies or YoYos
E-bike makers will be sad to hear that. All those toys are available
at big-box stores.
My point is that ebikes will not sky rocket and crash, which was my sense of those toys -- although I haven't looked at sales numbers. Are YoYos still big?

-- Jay Beattie.


Come and look here. No they don't gonna crash. It is the new normal here.

Lou

Yes, becoming very popular here in Santa Cruz, as well.

The effect I felt when I installed my (now-defunct) Elation 250W mid-drive
kit is that I was working just as hard (or not) as usual but that it just
gave me two extra gears. eg: 3rd gear instead of 1st on a known climb, 7th
gear instead of 5th on flat, etc.


Plus you have the option of arriving at a meeting in time, without
exuding an athlete's stench and without sweat stains on your shirt.


The game changer, of course, is the Li ion technology since if was so easy
for uninformed users to kill off their lead acid battery pack.


Li-Ion also has its issues. For example, even top brand manufacturers do
not seem to understand that it is not a good idea to top off a Li-Ion
battery at close to 100% charge and then leave the bike in the garage
that way. This results in premature aging and loss of capacity. The
smarter way is to offer 80% or so which is plenty for a short ride into
town. Then let users top it off in the morning when they expect to go on
a very long ride. In the same way, don't ride it all the way down to
where the low-batt cutoff turns it off, at least not often.


NiMH would be more robust, but that chemistry never seemed to catch on
before Lithium came on the scene.


NiMH doesn't have an adequate energy density. A NiHM-battery that can
last 40-50mi would be unreasonably large and heavy.

[...]

pH in Aptos


Is the old stranded concrete ship still there?

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

On Tuesday, June 1, 2021 at 11:50:01 AM UTC-7, Joerg wrote:
On 6/1/21 11:18 AM, pH wrote:
On 2021-06-01, Lou Holtman wrote:
On Tuesday, June 1, 2021 at 4:36:04 PM UTC+2, jbeattie wrote:
On Monday, May 31, 2021 at 7:51:59 PM UTC-7, Joy Beeson wrote:
On Mon, 31 May 2021 17:04:39 -0700 (PDT), jbeattie
wrote:

The ebike is not going the way of the Hula Hoop, Silly Putty, Slinkies or YoYos
E-bike makers will be sad to hear that. All those toys are available
at big-box stores.
My point is that ebikes will not sky rocket and crash, which was my sense of those toys -- although I haven't looked at sales numbers. Are YoYos still big?

-- Jay Beattie.


Come and look here. No they don't gonna crash. It is the new normal here.

Lou

Yes, becoming very popular here in Santa Cruz, as well.

The effect I felt when I installed my (now-defunct) Elation 250W mid-drive
kit is that I was working just as hard (or not) as usual but that it just
gave me two extra gears. eg: 3rd gear instead of 1st on a known climb, 7th
gear instead of 5th on flat, etc.

Plus you have the option of arriving at a meeting in time, without
exuding an athlete's stench and without sweat stains on your shirt.
The game changer, of course, is the Li ion technology since if was so easy
for uninformed users to kill off their lead acid battery pack.

Li-Ion also has its issues. For example, even top brand manufacturers do
not seem to understand that it is not a good idea to top off a Li-Ion
battery at close to 100% charge and then leave the bike in the garage
that way. This results in premature aging and loss of capacity. The
smarter way is to offer 80% or so which is plenty for a short ride into
town. Then let users top it off in the morning when they expect to go on
a very long ride. In the same way, don't ride it all the way down to
where the low-batt cutoff turns it off, at least not often.
NiMH would be more robust, but that chemistry never seemed to catch on
before Lithium came on the scene.

NiMH doesn't have an adequate energy density. A NiHM-battery that can
last 40-50mi would be unreasonably large and heavy.

[...]

pH in Aptos


Is the old stranded concrete ship still there?

Actually, L-ion doesn't like 100% charge under any circumstances. New batteries are on the way. I'm wondering if they will be able to make super-capacitors work. I read a short paragraph by a man who was a graphene expert who seemed to think that super capacitors were already on the horizon.

On 6/1/21 3:53 PM, Tom Kunich wrote:
On Tuesday, June 1, 2021 at 11:50:01 AM UTC-7, Joerg wrote:
On 6/1/21 11:18 AM, pH wrote:

[...]


The game changer, of course, is the Li ion technology since if was so easy
for uninformed users to kill off their lead acid battery pack.

Li-Ion also has its issues. For example, even top brand manufacturers do
not seem to understand that it is not a good idea to top off a Li-Ion
battery at close to 100% charge and then leave the bike in the garage
that way. This results in premature aging and loss of capacity. The
smarter way is to offer 80% or so which is plenty for a short ride into
town. Then let users top it off in the morning when they expect to go on
a very long ride. In the same way, don't ride it all the way down to
where the low-batt cutoff turns it off, at least not often.
NiMH would be more robust, but that chemistry never seemed to catch on
before Lithium came on the scene.


[...]

Actually, L-ion doesn't like 100% charge under any circumstances.


It's ok if you use it right away. There is always a toll to be paid but
then it's small. Thing is, most people do not know. Sadly, many
engineers don't seem to know either and then they design stuff that
ruins batteries over time by charging them 100% every single time, and
people buy it.


New batteries are on the way. I'm wondering if they will be able to make
super-capacitors work. I read a short paragraph by a man who was a
graphene expert who seemed to think that super capacitors were already
on the horizon.


They say that for a couple of decades now :-)

--
Regards, Joerg

http://www.analogconsultants.com/

On Mon, 31 May 2021 17:04:39 -0700, jbeattie scribed:


Will the ebike craze wane? Well, the outdoor craze in general will wane
after COVID-19, although my friends in the industry think there will be
a new, more favorable normal. Anyway, I can see the numbers dropping,
but the market is not going away. The ebike is not going the way of
the Hula Hoop, Silly Putty, Slinkies or YoYos

Oopoh, we have 3 out of 4 of those here.
No e-bikes.